Events

This Saturday we’ll discuss prediction markets (where you bet on real-world events), with the discussion led by Stephen Grugett of Manifold Markets.  We’ll also be joined by his co-founder and brother, James Grugett. Prediction markets have long been advocated by rationalists as a means of getting accurate estimates of the probability of various events by

Since we haven’t done this in a while, let’s have another meetup where times in our lives where we were surprised — times we thought we had a solid model of the world and it turned out to predict the opposite of what really happened. It’s a great opportunity to review why your world model

Text Shlomo for the address. His phone number is 718-787-7707. He asks everyone bring games because he doesn’t have any. Official start time is 7pm. We hope to see you then!

With the larger attendance and variety of newcomers, let’s use this change to share activities for future Saturday meetups and other events. If there’s an activity we’re not doing, or not doing enough, make the case for it! Previous activities include: lightning talks, calibration practice with Wits and Wagers, Taboo-ing practice, favorite articles, discussion of specific articles,

The group dinner will be held at Tyson’s Tacos at 4905 Airport Blvd. Official start time is 7pm. We hope to see you then!

Time to judge our ability to make well-calibrated predictions using Wits and Wagers to judge whether your ability to form estimates is well-calibrated! In the game, you make predictions on numerical trivial values (e.g. how many cars were registered in the US in 1920). We’ll also take time to share how we came up with the numbers,

The group dinner will be held at Playland Skate Center 8822 Mccann Dr. Official start time is 7pm. We hope to see you then!

No specific topic this time, as the meetup happens at the same time as Eeyore’s birthday (Wikipedia), an Austin tradition that has been held back by the pandemic, which many members (including me) hope to attend. But if you come to the cafe, feel free to use this thread to announce where you have set up. If you