Note: We’re back to the Central Market on North Lamar for meetups. See footer.
One importation rationalist skill is being well-calibrated: accurately gauging your confidence levels in your beliefs.
Using numerical trivia questions drawn from a board game, we’ll each guess a confidence interval (range of possible values) on the answer, in an attempt to be right 75% of the time for the 75% confidence interval, 90% of the time for the 90% confidence interval, etc. Then we’ll see who can accurately report their confidence level!
For a walkthrough on how calibration measurement works, here’s a post where Scott Alexander grades his calibration on a previous year’s predictions.
The meetup is at Central Market, 4001 N. Lamar, in the cafe area. Look for the LW and SSC signs. People start arriving at 1:30 pm, and the main activity will begin at 2:30 pm. Please follow posted guidance and notices in the store.