Cafe Meetup 7/16: Semi-assigned reading: A Failure, But Not of Prediction

For this meetup, we’ll do another article for discussion: in this case, SSC’s A Failure, But Not of Prediction, from April 2020, which is a review of experts’  advice in the early stages of Covid, and what they got wrong, even their domain knowledge was solid. It expands into a discussion of how to make practical use of your knowledge in a world of uncertainty (riff off of Goofus and Gallant comics).

The post is also semi-famous in addressing the issue of, “why do you think parachutes are effective, in the absence of a randomized, controlled trial?” and proposing heuristics for when you should use remedies that don’t meet that gold standard.

Remember, as semi-assigned reading, you’re not obligated to read it — it’s just a focal point, and we’ll break off a group that’s interested in discussing.


The meetup is at Central Market, 4001 N. Lamar, in the cafe area. Look for the LW and SSC signs. People start arriving at 1:30 pm, and the main activity will begin at 2:30 pm. Please follow posted guidance and notices in the store.

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