Silas Barta

For this meetup, we’ll do another article for discussion: in this case, SSC’s A Failure, But Not of Prediction, from April 2020, which is a review of experts’  advice in the early stages of Covid, and what they got wrong, even their domain knowledge was solid. It expands into a discussion of how to make […]

With all the bad news coming in, is there anything going right? Don’t wait until November; use this chance to share what you’re thankful for right now. This is also your permission to give praise to others for what you appreciate about them. *** The meetup is at Central Market, 4001 N. Lamar, in the

In the spirit of previous meetups about rationalist Taboo, we’re going to try an alternate game with the same idea, of trying to communicate something with a limited vocabulary. The game is called Person Do Thing (instructions). Like with Taboo, you’re trying to get someone to say a target word, but instead of having a

This Saturday we’ll discuss prediction markets (where you bet on real-world events), with the discussion led by Stephen Grugett of Manifold Markets.  We’ll also be joined by his co-founder and brother, James Grugett. Prediction markets have long been advocated by rationalists as a means of getting accurate estimates of the probability of various events by