This Saturday we’ll discuss prediction markets (where you bet on real-world events), with the discussion led by Stephen Grugett of Manifold Markets. We’ll also be joined by his co-founder and brother, James Grugett.
Prediction markets have long been advocated by rationalists as a means of getting accurate estimates of the probability of various events by making it profitable to correctly gauge that figure. In addition to the first link above, you may want to check out the following ACX articles:
Information Markets, Decision Markets, Attention Markets, Action Markets
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As a reminder, the meetup is at Central Market, 4001 N. Lamar, in the cafe area. Look for the LW and SSC signs. People start arriving at 1:30 pm, and the main activity will begin at 2:30 pm. Please follow posted guidance and notices in the store.
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